Giving Away Money: 2023 Week 13 Picks Against the Spread To Enhance Your Filthy Lucre

Week 11: 3-3
Season: 40-27-2

Told Ya’ and What on Earth

I count this as a loss, despite me very clearly telling you Ole Miss was gonna’ wet the bed. Math does many things well, but math doesn’t take into account that LMFK teams almost never cover when job rumors start swirling. That’s something you just have to use your common sense for, why I took ULM to cover IRL, and why I said to shade the Rebels.

Except for this week...which we shall get to in a minute.

Biggest question mark here is how distracted Lane is going to be with the lawsuit and latest coaching rumors du jour.

The math likes the Rebels, even if reality may not
Ole Miss 38.17

Final: 35-3. WOMP WOMP.

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Welcome to Week Thirteen of 2023’s Giving Away Money.

We use data-based algorithmic predictions for all of our picks, combined with deep knowledge, and some good ole’ fashioned eyeballs.

For a third year, we extend our thanks to DraftKings for sponsoring Roll ‘Bama Roll in this space. For more degenerate gambling, fantasy, and sportsbook posts, you can check all of those out at the SBNation DraftKings Supergroup hub.

For current odds, check those out here.

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Half a dozen games to go through today, and you know the drill: One we like, one we love, an underdog to consider, one to steer clear of, a ginormous spread worth your time, and a mortal lock.

Vegas has your money; let’s go get it.

Not with a 10’ Pole and Stolen Money:

FSU -6.5 at Florida

The data are useless with Jordan Travis out. I tried to approximate his loss, but it just won’t work. FSU has played iffy on the road, yet won them all. The problem for an upset here is that, although the Gator offense has done just about that has been asked of them, UF’s defense will get you sent to the Hague: It’s a war crime.

If Billy Napier were ever going to repay Nick Saban for giving him a shot at a coaching gig, a huge upset here would be how.

The numbers say the Seminoles should still be able to pull a TD on the road, but you can’t trust that at all.

Stay away from this. I beg you
‘Noles -9.224

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One We Like:

Rice -4 vs. FAU

The Owls are one of the most sneaky dangerous home teams in the country, particularly with that lethal passing game. They’ll get bowl eligible with this one — they’ve lost several close games against some damn good teams. This FAU team, and that awful secondary, are not one such good team. Sitting at 4-7, Tom Herman probably wishes he were an OC at a big school rather than taking the helm of this disaster in Boca.

Hoot, Hoot MFer!
Rice -8.23

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One We Love:

Ole Miss -10 at Miss. State

The Egg Bowl is usually good for some nuttiness. But the fact is this State team is deplorable. They’ve thrown more INTs this year than they had total TOs all of last season. The defense is among the conference’s worst. They allow the second-most yards after the catch. They DO allow the most yards after contact. And, if Lane Kiffin is even remotely dialed in with a Rebels team leading the conference in TOM, then Ole Miss will kick their ass. Let the Deion Sanders bidding war begin in Starvkille. We’re not the biggest Pete Golding fan around here, but one thing he was very good at was stoning the Bulldogs like an Old Testament patriarch seeing a little ankle.

Ole Miss -16.93
And it could get a lot, lot worse.

Underdog With Bite

James Madison -9 at Coastal Carolina

You have to wonder about the Dukes’ headspace after choking last week, and then going on the road to face a tough Coastal team to close out their season...with literally nothing left to play for. CCU is on a tear, winning four straight, covering five straight. A win here seals up a SBCCG appearance. They very well could get it too.

At the least, take Coastal to cover at home.
CCU +5.329

Photo by Bryan Lynn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

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Ginormous Spread Worth Your Time

Liberty -17 at UTEP

Chadwell is gonna’ get serious looks this offseason by big programs. The Dimel era dies in El Paso methinks. I still cannot believe pollsters won’t rank the Flames. (And, without going all #politics, I suspect one reason they don’t get much love from the legacy sports press is probably that reason too: Politics...well, that and CUSA is cheeks this year, and Liberty is an option team. Which is never sexy...to pansies. However, if we’re gonna excuse the P12 and Michigan’s soft schedules, then be consistent. Rank Liberty, you cowards! And I say that as an agnostic and as the most milquetoast of center-left Democrats. Brutal spot to be in, I know. Vox thinks I’m a tiki torch mobster, the right thinks I’m half a dim sum away from being a Maoist.)

UTEP’s running defense and propensity to turn it over are going to be killers here, even acknowledging LU is on the road. The Flames have been out-f’n-standing this year ATS: 10-1.

Fightin’ Baptists trying to turn heads for that New Year’s Six bid
Liberty -22.93

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Mortal Lock

TCU+ 10 at Oklahoma

The Frogs haven’t matched up well out of Ft. Worth this year. They’ve been ghastly against the run. They’re -6 on the road. Their secondary is in the bottom half of the Big 12 across the board. And that’s not even counting that they’ve especially played heinously against Oklahoma traditionally. Did we mention the turnovers? And how good OU is at creating them? And how awesome Weirdo Venables has been ATS this year at home?

Suffice it to say, trotting out that sloppy offense, that undersized defensive line, and a gross secondary into Norman is recipe for disaster.

All smiles in Norman, as Lincoln Riley is about to get fired.
OU -17.22

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Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.

Just five bucks a month. Far cheaper than a divorce attorney when your wife leaves you for being a bad gambler.