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Graphing the SEC, 2023 Week 13

Georgia was quite efficient. Florida was not. Kentucky was explosive for some reason. And more.

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 25 Kentucky at Louisville Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

For data definitions and disclaimers, take a look at my rundown in the first article in this series: Graphing the SEC, 2023 Week 1

SEC Week 13 Success Rates

Rank Game Result SR -- Opp SR ---
Rank Game Result SR -- Opp SR ---
1 Georgia @ Georgia Tech W 31-23 63% |||||||||||| 51% ||||||||||
2 Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt W 48-24 51% |||||||||| 44% ||||||||
3 Oklahoma vs. TCU W 69-45 50% |||||||||| 40% ||||||||
4 Alabama @ Auburn W 27-24 48% |||||||||| 40% ||||||||
5 Texas vs. Texas Tech W 57-7 46% |||||||||| 30% ||||||
6 LSU vs. Texas A&M W 42-30 45% |||||||||| 40% ||||||||
7 Vanderbilt @ Tennessee L 24-48 44% |||||||| 51% ||||||||||
8 Ole Miss @ Miss State W 17-7 43% |||||||| 31% ||||||
9 Missouri @ Arkansas W 48-14 42% |||||||| 25% ||||||
10 Texas A&M @ LSU L 30-42 40% |||||||| 45% ||||||||||
11 Auburn vs. Alabama L 24-27 40% |||||||| 48% ||||||||||
12 Kentucky @ Louisville W 38-31 38% |||||||| 51% ||||||||||
13 South Carolina vs. Clemson L 7-16 35% |||||| 42% ||||||||
14 Florida vs. Florida State L 15-24 31% |||||| 29% ||||||
15 Miss State vs. Ole Miss L 7-17 31% |||||| 43% ||||||||
16 Arkansas vs. Missouri L 14-48 25% |||||| 42% ||||||||

We’ve got some familiar storylines, but otherwise middling efficiencies for the most part this week across the conference.

  • Georgia was super efficient, again, against an overmatched Georgia Tech. I’m sure the game was mostly incredibly boring. So why was it so close?
  • Tennessee continues to impress (at least somewhat) against bad teams while then doing jack versus good teams (see Georgia the week prior).
  • Oklahoma scored 69 points but somehow only had a 50% SR (2 points better than Alabama did while getting 1⁄3 of the points). That’s very strange and I’m assuming the explosiveness table will tell us more about that.
  • Kentucky wasn’t very efficient but still won somehow.
  • The usual bad teams — South Carolina, Florida, Mississippi State, Arkansas — were bad again.

SEC Week 13 Explosiveness (isoPPP)

Rank Game Result Explos. -- Opp Explos. ---
Rank Game Result Explos. -- Opp Explos. ---
1 Kentucky @ Louisville W 38-31 1.86 ||||||||||||||| 1.12 |||||||
2 Oklahoma vs. TCU W 69-45 1.68 ||||||||||||| 1.62 |||||||||||||
3 Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt W 48-24 1.44 ||||||||||| 1.31 |||||||||
4 Florida vs. Florida State L 15-24 1.44 ||||||||||| 1.51 |||||||||||
5 Auburn vs. Alabama L 24-27 1.40 ||||||||||| 1.19 |||||||
6 Texas A&M @ LSU L 30-42 1.33 ||||||||| 1.29 |||||||||
7 Vanderbilt @ Tennessee L 24-48 1.31 ||||||||| 1.44 |||||||||||
8 LSU vs. Texas A&M W 42-30 1.29 ||||||||| 1.33 |||||||||
9 Missouri @ Arkansas W 48-14 1.26 ||||||||| 0.88 |||||
10 Miss State vs. Ole Miss L 7-17 1.20 ||||||||| 0.98 |||||
11 Alabama @ Auburn W 27-24 1.19 ||||||| 1.40 |||||||||||
12 South Carolina vs. Clemson L 7-16 1.04 ||||||| 0.80 |||||
13 Texas vs. Texas Tech W 57-7 0.99 ||||| 0.81 |||||
14 Ole Miss @ Miss State W 17-7 0.98 ||||| 1.20 |||||||||
15 Georgia @ Georgia Tech W 31-23 0.96 ||||| 0.93 |||||
16 Arkansas vs. Missouri L 14-48 0.88 ||||| 1.26 |||||||||

The explosiveness table keeps some of the top offenses from the earlier table, but really flips the script on others.

  • Georgia posted a sub-1.0 isoPPP, which is extremely un-explosive and likely helps explain why this game was at least artificially close. Again, it sure looks like this was a super boring game. Also, they surely had to be holding back before Atlanta next week, no? I don’t like how that worked this week with Auburn apparently doing the same.
  • Kentucky was monumentally explosive for some reason. Do I understand why? No. Did I watch this game? Also no. But am I going to put them in the image feature for this article rather than Georgia? Absolutely.
  • Auburn was more explosive than Alabama, but both were middling-to-good. Auburn likely benefitted from some SR/isoPPP inversion effect — though not a lot — given that their SR was below average. Their explosive plays were also very explosive more often than the Tide’s.
  • Speaking of inversion, usually a really inefficient team will have an easier time popping on this isoPPP board, but Arkansas managed to be dead last in both tables this week. That is so, so bad.

This is the last time we’ll see these tables so full of SEC teams: Rivalry Week is done, and we’re moving on to league championships. I’ll take a look at a version of this that incorporates the other games next weekend.

Fingers crossed that the Tide line looks better than I suspect it’s going to at this same time next week. Roll Tide!

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